Report: Census Bureau data suggests a return to normalcy for residential real estate

Written by Andy Castillo

When interest rates suddenly plunged to historic lows during the pandemic, it sparked a nationwide residential real estate migration. Facing stay-at-home orders and the new possibility remote work, many homeowners traded the conveniences of dense city centers for more spacious rural and suburban neighborhoods. Years later, Americans are on the move once again—but for slightly different reasons, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) analysis.

“A change in marital status was a more common reason for moving in 2022 than in 2021 and seeking a better housing unit or neighborhood became less common reasons,” reads an explainer about the findings, citing recently released U.S. Census Bureau data. But while “reasons for moving and types of moves changed, overall geographic mobility remained stable.”

The analysis estimates mobility and migration trends. The estimates used 2020 Census population data, while the 2018 and 2021 estimates used 2010 Census data.

Overall, the most popular reason for moving cited by more than 41 percent of homebuyers was housing related (declining from 45 percent the year prior). Family reasons, (26 percent), employment (16 percent) and other reasons (15 percent) followed behind, with each notably increasing by a few percentage points. Family reasons went up by two whole percentage points—led by a change in marital status, a statistically significant change from 4.8 to 6 percent, and a desire to establish a household.

“This decline suggests reversal of a boom in housing demand that happened in 2020, early in the COVID-19 pandemic. As people spent more time at home, home remodeling and improvement projects surged but movers also became more eager to move into nicer housing units,” the analysis says. “The share of movers seeking upgraded housing grew from 14.6% in 2020 to 17.2% in 2021. In 2022, that share dropped back to 14.4%, statistically the same as the 2020 pre-pandemic baseline.”

The data is relevant to city and county governments because the dramatic change over the last few years in real estate norms (especially within the commercial real estate sector) has impacted revenue in communities of all sizes across the nation. The commercial real estate vacancy rate crested 17% nationally this summer. The full economic implication of the pandemic’s impact on real estate has yet to be felt.

About two-thirds of those who responded to a recent survey from Bloomberg News, for example, said they think the commercial real estate market will crash before it recovers.

The Census Bureau’s analysis suggests a return to normalcy within the residential real estate market. The mass exodus of city dwellers sparked uncertainty about the future of cities. Fifty-three percent of homebuyers stayed in the same county, based on the latest data.

The Census Bureau also released an interactive map recently illustrating 2020 Census data about homeownership by age, race and ethnicity. The map provides data at the national, state and county levels and data from the 2010 Census for comparison, according to a statement from the organization. The Census Bureau simultaneously published Housing Characteristics: 2020, which provides an overview of homeownership, renters, vacant housing and other 2020 Census housing statistics previously released through the 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC).