Keating Report on government budgets and spending, 2nd half 2012
Are better days ahead for government budgets and the economy? Is the worst behind us? The economy continues to slowly lurch ahead, with improved state government revenues but spotty hiring in the U.S. workforce. It is clear, the post-recession economy is affecting government budgets.
Government administrators, including the mayor of Carmel, Ind., as well as experts from George Mason University and the National Council for Public-Private Partnerships predict the conditions for second-half 2012 government budgets, spending and related topics.
Federal fiscal trends
Federal revenues will reach $2.45 trillion in 2012 and will increase a little in 2013, reaching $2.96 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) March 2012 Baseline forecast. Congress and policymakers are facing difficult trade-offs as they formulate fiscal policies, especially with the tax increases and spending cuts that are due to kick in during 2013. Read about federal fiscal trends in the first part of this series.
State finances
Recently, state tax collections have provided some optimistic headlines. State tax revenues have continued to expand, and in the final quarter of 2011, states recorded their eighth consecutive quarter of growth. Continued business expansions, including new strength in manufacturing, should keep the momentum going. Read about state finances in the second part of this series.
Local government fiscal realities
These are challenging times for local governments, with both property values and property tax revenues declining in many cities. The disappointing May jobs numbers led the National League of Cities (NLC) to urge Congress to stop its gridlock and to pass a long-term transportation bill that would put large numbers of construction workers back on payrolls. Read about local government fiscal realities in the third part of this series.
Public works and transportation construction
Several major public works projects that feature green products and other innovations are described in this section of the second-half 2012 Keating report. The Birch Hill Road Bridge project in York, Maine — one of the projects described in this section — is a monument to green construction. The structure is built completely out of recycled plastic — a first for a public roadway bridge in the U.S. Read about public works and transportation construction in the fourth part of this series.
Public-private partnerships
In the months remaining in 2012, we will see an expansion in the use of public-private partnerships (PPPs), says the executive director of a national trade group. Executives from Xerox and American Express OPEN weigh in on how governments are using PPPs to help balance budgets and complete projects. Read about public-private partnerships and their potential impact on government budgets in the fifth part of this series.
Economy and government purchases
The economy continues to slowly lurch ahead, and that is affecting government revenues, purchases and budgets. In 2012, government purchases of goods and services will reach $3.03 trillion, the same number as 2011, according to Waltham, Mass.-based economic forecaster IHS Global Insight. Read about economy and government purchases in the sixth part of this series.
Series Information
The Keating Report mid-year 2012 forecast on government budgets and government spending is in the June edition of Government Product News and is offered in installments at govpro.com. The mid-year forecast is an update of our 2012 forecast that was published in the January edition of Government Product News.
Michael Keating is senior editor for Govpro.com and Government Product News. He can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].
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- 2012 Keating Report on government budgets and spending
- Keating Report on government budgets and spending, 2nd half 2011
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- 2010 Keating Report on government budgets and spending
- Keating Report: Government Budgets & Spending Outlook, 2nd half 2009 (Part 1)
- Keating Report: Government Budgets & Spending Outlook, 2nd half 2009 (Part 2)
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