At least 45 states expect higher tax collections next year than this year, the third consecutive year that state officials are forecasting state tax growth compared with the previous fiscal year, according to a report from the National Conference of State Legislators. But growth will come at a modest pace, with 36 states and the District of Columbia anticipating total tax growth only between 1 percent and 4.9 percent.
Most states project modest growth. States anticipating total tax collections in fiscal 2013 to increase from 1 percent to 4.9 percent include South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada.
Some states expect higher tax revenues, with nine states projecting total tax collections to grow at least 5 percent above fiscal 2012 levels. The largest increases are expected in California and Delaware, with both states projecting total tax collections to increase by 10 percent. Arizona, Florida and Ohio also expect increases of at least 5 percent.
Tax collections are expected to remain essentially flat in two states, Texas and Wyoming. Only Alaska and Kansas project total tax collections to decline by at least 1 percent. The falling price of oil is expected to drive down tax revenues in Alaska, while Kansas enacted tax policy changes that will reduce state income taxes next year.
The NCSL report projected growth for state total, personal income, sales, corporate income and other taxes compared with estimated collections in fiscal 2012. It is based on a survey of legislative fiscal directors in 50 states and the District of Columbia.